Volatile global trade conditions, persistent protectionism, as well as surging energy and transport costs continue to present challenges to business operations. For export-oriented Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), which often operate with constrained resources, gathering timely market intelligence to navigate external shocks and secure new orders has never been more important.

In this online seminar, we examine the China Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Export Risk Index (SMERI), jointly developed by China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure) and the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation.

Macro outlooks and transaction-level risks may diverge. A favourable macro picture does not preclude elevated payment risk at the transaction level. SMERI thus complements macroeconomic risk perceptions with micro-level patterns observed from proprietary underwriting and claims data.

Drawing on findings across four dimensions (Macro-economy, Trade Environment, Buyer Creditworthiness, and Payment Performance) in the SMERI, the session highlights key insights into the China-ASEAN trade landscape, offering practical risk management tools for expanding overseas, and data-driven references for targeted policy support.

Key Highlights:

1. China’s exports and investment concentrate in ASEAN markets with lower or moderate risk profiles as perceived by SMEs.

2. During the first half of 2026, composite risks decreased in most ASEAN countries, though intra-regional divergence persists.

3. While overall payment performance improved, certain markets experienced rising risks. Divergence in buyer creditworthiness is becoming more prominent.

4. Looking ahead, as Chinese SMEs increasingly engage in investment, the index framework can be expanded to cover policy stability, compliance, and operating risks, providing forward-looking signals of policy shifts and broader economic trends in supply-chain restructuring.

By YAN, Bowen and HUANG, Yijia