Summary:

On 26 September 2025, ACI hosted a webinar themed “Tracking Investment and Policy Shifts in a World of Protectionism”. This is the first webinar under the ACI data and Policy Analytics Seminar Series this year. The session explored how rising protectionism and supply-chain reconfiguration are reshaping Chinese outward FDI (OFDI) and, in parallel, how Singapore channels capital across ASEAN—distinguishing “true” FDI from pass-through investment routed via Singapore.

Data as Backbone of Analysis

The webinar began with an introduction to three databases by Dr Liu Jingting, Research Fellow with ACI. In particular, Orbis global database enables disentangling intertwined corporate ownerships thus revealing hidden investment linkages; Orbis Crossborder database allows researchers to track FDI investment sentiment real time; whereas Global Trade Alert database provides updated shifts in countries’ policy stances worldwide.

Uncovering Singapore’s Role in Channeling FDI in ASEAN

Presented by Mr Adam Romzi, Research Analyst with ACI, the session followed by a showcase of latest ACI study examining how global investors are leveraging Singapore as a hub and conduit for further expansion and investment in neighbouring ASEAN countries.

ACI research shows that a large share of FDI inflows to neighbouring ASEAN countries classified as “from Singapore” are pass-through—frequently linked to the US, Japan, and Korea as ultimate owners.

Further, rerouted FDI flows are often concentrated in the manufacturing industries while FDI flows truly originated from Singapore are concentrated in the high-value-added services sector, such as financial intermediation and management services. This reflects Singapore’s role as a regional financial and services hub while neighbouring countries serving as manufacturing bases. 

Rise in Protectionism and Chinese Firms’ Offshoring Activities

Mr Weilin Lu, Research Analyst with ACI, further presented recent ACI study examining the impact of protectionist policies on Chinese firms’ offshoring activities, both globally and in ASEAN.

The study finds that protectionism has surged and broadened since 2018–2020. While import barriers rose after the global financial crisis and remained elevated; export controls proliferated post–US–China trade war, disproportionately targeting strategic sectors.

Coinciding with rising protectionism, China’s outward FDI rose globally – especially into the connector economies such as Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico, Morocco, and Poland. Further, the study shows that increasing export barriers is linked to the rising Chinese outward FDI, especially in connector economies and in strategic industries.

Key Highlights:

1. Singapore serves as a hub and conduit for channeling global FDI across ASEAN.

2. Large shares of ASEAN FDI labeled “from Singapore” are pass-through concentrated in manufacturing industries, while true Singapore-origin FDI concentrates in high-value services.

3. Export controls and broader protectionist measures have intensified post–US–China trade war, disproportionately affecting strategic sectors.

4. These protectionist measures are positively associated with increased Chinese OFDI especially into connector economies and strategic manufacturing.

By LIU Jingting

1. Introduction of Tracking Investment and Policy Shifts in a World of Protectionism

2. Channeling FDI Across ASEAN: Role of Singapore

3. How Protectionist Measures Shape the Offshoring Strategies of Chinese Firms